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Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season
September A new month is upon us.Will that patch of storms between Cape Verde and Africa noted in the new TWO amount to anything?--L.E./ 16:40, September 1, 2009 (UTC) :Hello?! Is anyone paying attention to the seemingly imminent tropical depression near the Lesser Antilles? Or are we going to ignore that and worry about a curious wave that's probably five days or more from doing anything? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:14, September 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Erika is the last INVEST of August.The new patch is the first development originating in September.--L.E./ 04:37, September 2, 2009 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Wave near Cape Verde is up on NRL as 95L, NHC's got it at medium chance of development. --Patteroast 18:10, September 4, 2009 (UTC) :Not showing up on NRL or NHC anymore. --Patteroast 01:02, September 7, 2009 (UTC) 07L.FRED 96L.Invest New wave off Africa, NHC's got it at a medium chance of development. --Patteroast 01:02, September 7, 2009 (UTC) :Up to high risk on NHC now. --Patteroast 08:14, September 7, 2009 (UTC) ::Conditions look good in the near term, but the long term looks dicey. If it moves almost due west, it's got a chance, but the models curve it northwest right into the Wall of Death (as I now call it), the large pocket of strong shear covering the Central Atlantic from about 18N, 55W to about 30N, 35W. The best (or worst) case, impossible, storybook scenario is that it moves due west and then curves ever so slightly to miss the Lesser Antilles, becomes a major hurricane in the Sargasso Sea area east of the Bahamas, hits incoming westerly shear and then hits Florida as a weakening, sheared Category 1. But most likely, it'll just be sheared into oblivion like Danny and Erika. No matter what this thing becomes, I don't think it has a bright future. However, it is worth noting that the last time September passed without a major hurricane in the Atlantic was 1994, 15 years ago. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:18, September 7, 2009 (UTC) :::TWO says,"IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ... ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT." Stay tuned.--L.E./ 19:11, September 7, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 7 Current trend did continue. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:51, September 7, 2009 (UTC) :The forecast was higher than I expected but still lower than the model consensus. I'm a little surprised at the sharpness of the forecasted recurvature. NHC brings it almost due north. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:04, September 8, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fred Upgraded! --Patteroast 05:54, September 8, 2009 (UTC) :Looks good. The center is actually closer to the deep convection than previously thought. The long term shear forecast looks better than I had previously thought. Notice that the intensity forecast has shifted a bit upward from the last one. If Fred keeps up his current pace, he's got an outside chance to become a hurricane. Stay tuned. It'll be interesting to see what the storm looks like in the morning. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:43, September 8, 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Fred We have a hurricane gentlemen. CIMSS and Colorado State both call it "Hurricane Fred". Just waiting on the official word. Fred is not messing around. It's taking advantage of the rare spell of good conditions. It would not surprise me if Fred made Cat 2 like some of the models forecast. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:31, September 9, 2009 (UTC) :NHC says hurricane as well,but the forecast peaks at only 80 knots.Hardly a fit mate for Wilma,so Flintstone fans may be disappointed.--L.E./ 05:23, September 9, 2009 (UTC) ::Wait, are you implying "fit mate" and "Fred Flinstone" belong in the same sentence?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 05:40, September 9, 2009 (UTC) :::Are you guys really this bored? I think most storms are going to fall a bit short when compared to the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time (in terms of SLP that is). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:59, September 9, 2009 (UTC) ::Well, it's a cat. 2 now, and could be a 3 in the next 3-6 hours. Fred has become such a strong storm so fast, I can't see it impacting land. This is exactly what happened to Hurricane Isidore in 1996. It became a major hurricane so far east that it just turned north and died out. The same will probably happen with Fred. The highest expected forecast winds are 120-125 miles per hour. 09:18, September 9, 2009 (UTC) Major Hurricane Fred Major hurricane: 105 kts and counting! Wow, Fred had a most pleasant evening! Nobody, not even the models saw this one coming. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index was only 21 percent at the 11pm advisory. 76, I was thinking the exact same thing! This storm does in fact remind me of Isidore. It formed in about the same area, took about the same track and had about the same results. Though Isidore never strengthened this quickly. Fred's gone from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in 18 hours...that's pretty amazing. This has been a feast or famine season reminiscent of 2007 (if not as emphatic). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:29, September 9, 2009 (UTC) :So,putting on strength in a hurry is one thing Fred and Wilma have in common.But Fred doesn't seem headed for Bedrock...--L.E./ 16:00, September 9, 2009 (UTC) ::Surprising storm alright. But indeed, it would have to pull a fairly incredible track (not to say impossible) to hit any sort of land. And by "incredible track" I mean "pull a Vince".--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:05, September 9, 2009 (UTC) :Yes, I am surprised to see it strengthen so fast, but as I said, Fred will probably avoid land and die out over water. 2007's Felix intensified at a similar rate and became a category 5 only 2 days after forming. That's a record for the atlantic basin, but unlike Fred, Felix made landfall as a cat 5 and was one of only 2 storms to hit Nicaragua at that intensity, with the other being Edith in 1971 - and on top of that it was retired, which I wasn't really expecting. Fred, on the other hand, won't do f'ing jack because it is to far out there at it's kind of strength. I would be scared if this thing was threatening the U.S. at this strength, but the good news is it won't be. 23:31, September 9, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fred ::Well, Fred's a storm now, and it's much weaker than it was earlier. It will head toward the U.S. sometime next week, but by that time it will probrably be either a weak storm or a remnant low. 19:18, September 12, 2009 (UTC) Remnant Poofed like two days ago. But hey hey, orange colored in Special TWO! Storm's Eye 23:22, September 13, 2009 (UTC) :Still spinning around out there, although it's been down to low risk for a while, now. --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2009 (UTC) ::There was a recon scheduled for Fred, but it's been canceled -Patteroast 16:16, September 19, 2009 (UTC) :::Nevermind, it finally poofed for good a couple days ago. --Patteroast 11:52, September 23, 2009 (UTC) ::::Patteroast, it dissipated a few minutes after you said that. The remnant low was deactivated at September 20, but the low stayed there until Sep 23. 14:12, September 26, 2009 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Wave halfway between Africa and the Caribbean that's been listed as low risk for days on NHC is now up to medium risk and NRL's listing it as an invest. What happened to 97L? I totally missed it. --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2009 (UTC) :High risk, now. --Patteroast 16:16, September 19, 2009 (UTC) ::And... nevermind. Poof. --Patteroast 11:52, September 23, 2009 (UTC) 08L.EIGHT Tropical Depression 8 There's actually a hurricane season going on right now? Really? Totally forgot. Our new depression has found itself a nice little anticyclone to protect it from the downright sadistic mid-level shear pattern right now. It will miss that anticyclone dearly in about 24 hours. The next name is Grace (yes it is September 25. That tells you all you need to know about this season) and this thing will need a whole lot of grace, as in hail Mary, full of grace, because a prayer is about all it's got. In all my extensive research, I've never seen the oceans of our planet this calm in September. The totality of the tropical quiet is really remarkable. Even ignoring the lack of named storms, there hasn't even been many disturbances. Thunderstorm activity along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the belt of thunderstorms that most tropical cyclones originate from, has been unbelieveably quiet. Even in really dead years, there's always ''some activity along the ITCZ. I have never seen the world's oceans so completely devoid of precipitation, let alone storms. This inactivity would be remarkable for April, let alone September. The closest thing I can find to quiet on this scale in the satellite era is 1977. In September, 1977, just 11 storms formed worldwide (for comparison, the Atlantic had 8 by itself in 2007) and just one major hurricane (Babe in WPAC). So far this September, just 9 storms have formed and two major hurricanes (Fred and Choi-wan). I'd really like to see a combined ACE for 2009 and see how it compares to other years. I bet it's remarkable. A meteorology professor at my university has speculated that the culprit for this inactivity could be the solar minimum. In 2008, solar activity reached its lowest levels since 1913, which, lo and behold, coincided with the least active Atlantic hurricane season on record in 1914. Wow. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:19, September 25, 2009 (UTC) :Sky, we need a break from these storms. After what happened in 2008, 2005, 2004, and some other years, we finally got a break. I mean, even 2006 dipped out better shit than this year. I understand that it has been quiet, but after what happened in earlier years, we deserve something like this. October is just around the corner, and it isn't out of the question for us to see an Opal or a Wilma, but I personally don't see that happening. The forecast says northwest, and I don't see TD 8affecting any land. 00:20, September 26, 2009 (UTC) ::For what it's worth, I've been running a global 2009 ACE using 1-minute winds worldwide (NHC, CPHC and JTWC only). As of 26/0300z, here are the stats. (All operational unless stated with "BT". SHEM storms are ''only those that have formed in 2009, not the season 2008-2009) -- RattleMan 18:57, September 26, 2009 (UTC) Global 2009 ACE ATL 39.9775 12.28% EPAC 75.6675 23.24% CPAC 12.135 3.73% WPAC 108.31 33.27% NIO 4.34 1.33% SWIO 38.11 11.71% AUS 39.48 12.13% SPAC 7.515 2.31% TOTAL 325.535 NHEM 240.43 73.86% SHEM 85.105 26.14% West Pacific Seasonal ACE Kujira 12.0925 41.36% Chan-hom 6.3575 21.74% Linfa 4.7425 16.22% Nangka 2.2975 7.86% Soudelor 0.1225 0.42% Molave 3.38 11.56% Goni 1.0925 2.81% Morakot 8.59 21.53% Etau 1.225 1.79% Maka 0.9325 1.36% Vamco 23.12 33.84% Krovanh 4.2525 5.90% Dujuan 3.9125 5.40% Choi-wan 33.9725 31.44% Koppu 1.975 1.82% Ketsana 0.245 0.23% TOTAL 108.31 East Pacific Seasonal ACE BT Andres 3.305 4.36% Blanca 1.13 1.49% Carlos 8.92 11.76% Dolores 0.81 1.07% BT Enrique 2.475 3.26% Felicia 15.2525 20.10% Guillermo 9.7275 12.82% Hilda 0.405 0.53% Ignacio 1.4975 1.97% Jimena 23.0325 30.36% BT Kevin 0.97 1.28% Linda 5.27 6.95% Marty 1.5725 2.07% Nora 1.3 1.71% TOTAL 75.668 Central Pacific Seasonal ACE Lana 2.7475 40.52% Felicia 3.7875 55.86% Maka 0.245 2.72% Guillermo 2.2425 18.48% Hilda 3.1125 25.65% TOTAL 12.135 South Pacific Seasonal ACE Hettie 0.245 5.09% Innis 0.65 13.50% Joni 2.775 57.63% Ken 2.7 0.00% Lin 1.145 23.78% TOTAL 7.515 North Indian Seasonal ACE Bijli 2.38 28.22% Aila 1.8375 21.17% 03B 0.1225 1.41% TOTAL 4.34 Southwest Indian Seasonal ACE Dongo 2.08 5.46% Eric 1.47 3.86% Fanele 5.7275 15.03% Gael 18.5125 48.58% Hina 2.5475 6.68% 19S 0.1225 0.32% Izilda 2.5225 6.62% Jade 5.1275 13.45% TOTAL 38.11 Australian Seasonal ACE Charlotte 0.3675 0.93% Dominic 0.735 1.86% Ellie 0.6875 1.74% Freddy 2.1775 5.52% Gabrielle 0.735 1.86% Hamish 21.5 54.46% Ilsa 11.9025 30.15% Jasper 0.97 2.46% Kirrily 0.405 1.03% TOTAL 39.48 Atlantic Seasonal ACE Ana 0.735 3.94% Bill 25.76 95.33% Claudette 0.5275 1.83% Danny 1.875 6.22% Erika 1.2675 3.17% Fred 9.8125 24.55% TOTAL 39.9775 According to your table, we're at 325.5 now worldwide. It'll be interesting to see how it will compare to other years. In terms of the number of storms, I think we're actually about where we were at this point last year. That was probably help by the fact that the Eastern Pacific had just two weak tropical storms last September in its deadest September ever. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:27, September 27, 2009 (UTC) :By the way... TD Eight has dissipated. --Patteroast 04:44, September 27, 2009 (UTC) ::For the record, Hurricane Fred's date of dissipation, September 12, would be the earliest end to an Atlantic hurricane season EVER. The one known storm in 1914 dissipated on September 19. 1983 was the earliest since 1950 (I think) when Dean dissipated on September 30. That's just to give you guys some historical perspective. Even with this incredible stat, it's hard for me to believe that the Atlantic has a Grace in it for us. The atmosphere has just become so hostile. TD Eight never even got a chance to do anything before it got ripped apart. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:37, September 30, 2009 (UTC) October September's last TWO has no cyclone formation expected for 48 hours,and October has already begun by UTC.So what will this month hold?--L.E./ 23:59, September 30, 2009 (UTC) :Sky, I know it's somewhat hostile for anything to develop. But I still believe that Mother Nature ''may pop a surprise. Who knows... Storm's Eye 14:31, October 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Hmm.. there's an AoI at low risk on NHC right over the Azores... --Patteroast 18:25, October 1, 2009 (UTC) 09L.GRACE 90L.INVEST Oh. The AoI over the Azores is an invest. Still, low risk. --Patteroast 21:15, October 1, 2009 (UTC) :DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED,quoth the TWO.--L.E./ 23:56, October 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Whoa!Whoa!Whoa!WHAT JUST HAPPENED NHC HAS PUT A LOW NE OF THE AZORES AT HIGH RISK.! Tropical Storm Grace Upgraded. :Habawahabahawha??? That was unexpected. --Patteroast 11:34, October 5, 2009 (UTC) ::What's that? The season gonna mad? -- 14:58, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :::They're referencing Ireland now, this storm is strange. Dare I ask what could possibly be next? 18:08, October 5, 2009 (UTC) ::::Sky, I know it's somewhat hostile for anything to develop. But I still believe that Mother Nature '''may' pop a surprise. Who knows... Storm's Eye 14:31, October 1, 2009 (UTC)'' well, it seems that Mother Nature has popped a surprise. - 23:24, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :::::As fun as that was, NHC just issued its last advisory, saying Grace has been absorbed by a front. --Patteroast 03:16, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::::::This is like the a millionth time something like this has happened this year. Im tired of the NHC always being conservative. They need to learn to jump the gun sometimes. Also, Grace inst not done yet lets what the UKMET (not the model) has for Grace. Basins gone dead The Basins are dead again. The WPAC is finally having a major a parade of storms, though much much worse has happened. Wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic had the latest finish since 1914. The EPAC has been rocking and rolling all year long. NIO is dead. like the Atlantic. The WPAC is still below average. 10L.HENRI AoI: Halfway between Cape Verde and Lesser Antilles An area on NHC that doesn't flatly state it won't develop? Crazy. "SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH." Still, low risk. And not even showing up as an invest at this point. --Patteroast 15:04, October 4, 2009 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Invest'd. NHC still says slow development is possible. --Patteroast 13:46, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :"...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO..." and up to medium risk. --Patteroast 03:17, October 6, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Henri No advisory yet, but here's the special TWO at 3:15 PM EDT: SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 5 PM AST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. --Hurricane Diana 19:30, October 6, 2009 (UTC) :Well... that takes the cake for most enthusiastic TWO about an invest... no 'if trends continue' business, simply 'advisories will be initiated'.--Patteroast 20:04, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::Hard to disagree with that. Some of that may be them being somewhat bored from the recent lull (outside of the one day they tracked Grace) so who knows, maybe they wanted something to do. At least it'll miss the Antilles according to that, so for now it's just something to track and an interest to shipping. --Hurricane Diana 20:08, October 6, 2009 (UTC) :::Winds at 40 mph, expected to weaken and become a remnant low by tomorrow. --Hurricane Diana 21:01, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::::Henri got a little stronger than NHC seemed to expect, but it looks like the decline has begun. --Patteroast 13:54, October 7, 2009 (UTC) :::::Oh wow, it did. I missed it by combination of classes and most of my attention going to Melor in the West Pacific. The shear's just too strong for it to be able to fight it off, now it can weaken like they expected. --Hurricane Diana 19:30, October 7, 2009 (UTC) ::::::Remnant low now, not too surprising. That area's ripped apart a lot of storms this year. --Hurricane Diana 22:12, October 8, 2009 (UTC) Low chance of redevelopment on the 8PM TWO, probably doesn't mean much but it's there. --Hurricane Diana 23:40, October 10, 2009 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AoI: Northeast of French Guiana New AoI up on NHC, low risk. "DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR..." --Patteroast 13:56, October 7, 2009 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Invest'd, but NHC says: "ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING." --Patteroast 17:46, October 8, 2009 (UTC) :I had a feeling it was a little too far south to develop right now, though I'd watch it just in case nature springs another surprise on us. --Hurricane Diana 22:05, October 8, 2009 (UTC) ::Looks like it's crashed into northern Venezuela. Off NHC. --Patteroast 20:54, October 9, 2009 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: West-Southwest of Cape Verde A second blob appeared on NHC. Doesn't look like much though, and NHC says, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM..." --Patteroast 08:47, October 20, 2009 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Invest'd, but it sure doesn't look like much. NHC still says it won't develop. --Patteroast 20:13, October 20, 2009 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI: Southwestern Caribbean Jeff Masters over at Wunderground has been eying this for a couple days. NHC finally has it showing up as a low risk. Quote: "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD." -Patteroast 08:47, October 20, 2009 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Invest'd, looking pretty good, but too close to land to be really enthusiastic about development. Either way, Nicaragua's getting a lot of rain. --Patteroast 20:13, October 20, 2009 (UTC) Retirement at a Glance i dont think any. :Yeah, I'd have to agree. The only storms with any sort of impact were Bill, Claudette, and Fred. Bill did less damage than all retired storms other than Klaus, Claudette had minimal effect, and Fred's impacts weren't caused while it was a tropical system. Still have a month and a half of hurricane season left... fingers crossed... --Patteroast 03:36, October 19, 2009 (UTC) ::As of now, nothing's really worth retiring, I agree. You never know though, it's only October 19... --Hurricane Diana 01:15, October 20, 2009 (UTC)